Almond Market Outlook: Strong July Shipments Support Firmer Prices

By late summer, an almond orchard is mostly a waiting room. The nuts are still on the trees, the harvest equipment is not yet doing its noisy work, and the market is busy counting what has already left the state.

That count came in stronger than many traders expected. California's July almond shipments tightened the amount likely to remain in storage, helping put a floor under a market that had spent much of the season looking for one. The result is a more favorable backdrop for growers heading toward the next crop, according to the latest market report.

A Smaller Cushion on the Books

The Almond Board of California's July position report, summarized by RPAC, shows 203.6 million pounds shipped during the month, compared with 197.1 million pounds in July 2025. July was up 3.3% year over year, even as shipments for the marketing year remained slightly below the prior year's pace.

That combination matters because carryout is the quiet weight behind every sales conversation. A larger leftover supply gives buyers room to wait; a smaller one makes the same kernel harder to ignore. July did not erase the season's earlier softness, but it narrowed the cushion and gave sellers a little more leverage.

The strength also fits the pattern reported earlier in the summer. June shipments reached 213 million pounds, with export demand running ahead of domestic sales, according to a July industry market update. Almonds, like most commodities, prefer a customer who is in a hurry.

Prices Find Their Floor

Spot kernel prices in the United States and Spain are edging higher as demand stays strong. The move is not a wholesale price surge, and it does not turn every variety or grade into a premium sale. It does give the market a firmer reference point than growers and handlers had earlier in the season.

For California's almond growers, the timing is useful. Autumn harvest brings a rush of new volume, along with decisions about contracts, delivery timing, and how much flexibility to keep in storage. A market that has absorbed more old-crop almonds than expected makes those decisions with less immediate pressure to accept the first bid.

There are limits to the good news. July shipments describe demand and movement, not the final value of the crop still in the orchard. Buyers will continue to separate kernels by variety, size, quality, and destination, while the broader price signal can change once new-crop supplies begin arriving.