Almond Market Update: Strong Export Growth Amid Domestic Challenges

On an almond shipment ledger, two lines are pulling in opposite directions. The export line is climbing quickly; the domestic line has sagged to a level the industry has not seen often in recent years. For growers across California’s Central Valley, the distinction is more than bookkeeping: it determines which buyers are carrying the crop.

The latest monthly figures put the divide plainly. California almond export shipments reached 143.25 million pounds, up 31% from the same period last year, while domestic shipments fell to 46.84 million pounds, down 3.3% and among the lowest monthly volumes in a decade, according to the September almond market update.

India Pulls the Export Line

India is the conspicuous engine in that overseas movement. Shipments there jumped 170%, making the country’s buying especially important as California’s almond industry works through softer demand at home. The timing matters: export markets have exceeded the previous year in six of the past seven months, according to Blue Diamond’s September market report.

That does not make the export market a simple substitute for the U.S. consumer. Almonds move through different channels abroad, with purchasing calendars, currency conditions and local inventories shaping when buyers step in. A strong order book in one destination can help clear California inventory, but it can also concentrate the market’s good news in places growers cannot control.

A Crop-Year Opening With Less Room for Error

The market is also starting the 2026/27 crop year with expectations of a smaller California crop and smaller kernels. The August position report, the first of the new crop year, showed export demand accounting for essentially all of the year-over-year shipment gain, according to Treehouse California Almonds.

That combination changes the texture of the season. Strong foreign demand can support movement while domestic buyers remain cautious, but tighter supplies do not automatically repair a weak home channel. Packers and handlers still have to match varieties, sizes and forms with buyers whose appetite can change faster than an orchard can be replanted.

For California almond growers, the useful reading is therefore split in two. Overseas demand is providing the market’s momentum, particularly through India, while domestic movement is supplying the warning light. The next position reports will show whether export strength is broadening across destinations or whether the season is leaning too heavily on one major buyer.